The world’s most important bathtub drain is clogged, and Donald Trump wants everyone to grab a plunger. On Saturday, the President didn't mince words on Truth Social, essentially telling US allies that if they want their oil to keep flowing, they need to start ponying up some warships. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively a no-go zone right now. After two weeks of heavy-duty US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Persian Gulf has turned into a shooting gallery where global energy security goes to die.
Here’s the reality you won't see in a sanitized press release. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through that tiny strip of water between Oman and Iran. Since the war kicked off on February 28, that flow has slowed to a pathetic trickle. Trump claims the US has "decimated" 100% of Iran's military capability, but even he’s admitting the "decimated" guy can still throw a punch. He’s worried about "a drone or two" or a stray mine turning a billion-dollar tanker into a floating bonfire. If you liked this post, you should check out: this related article.
The big ask for global navies
Trump is looking at China, Japan, South Korea, France, and the UK. His logic? "We helped you, now you help us—A LOT!" He’s tired of the US acting as the world's free security guard while Beijing and Seoul reap the benefits of stable oil prices. It’s classic Trumpian burden-sharing, but the stakes are higher than a NATO budget dispute. If these countries don't step up, the US might just let the "clog" sit there until the economic pain forces their hand.
The responses so far have been... cautious. The UK is "discussing options," which is diplomatic speak for "we’re terrified of losing a destroyer." South Korea is "monitoring the situation." China? They're mostly silent, likely fuming that their energy lifeline is being held hostage by a war they didn't want. For another look on this development, see the recent update from The Guardian.
Why Iran isn't staying quiet
Don't think for a second that Tehran is just sitting in the rubble. The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei—who took the reins after his father was killed in the initial strikes—is playing a dangerous game of "if we burn, you burn with us." Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has already threatened to turn every oil facility in the region into a torch.
They aren't just bluffing. We’ve already seen:
- Drone debris hitting the Fujairah port in the UAE.
- Missile strikes launched toward US assets in Bahrain and Qatar.
- Direct threats against any nation "hosting American enemy missile launches."
Iran knows the Strait is its only real leverage. If they can’t sell their oil, they'll make sure nobody else can either. It’s a scorched-earth policy that’s already sent Brent crude screaming toward $100 a barrel, with some analysts whispering about $150 or even $200 if the fields themselves start getting hit.
The escort gamble
There's talk of the US Navy starting "tanker escorts," similar to Operation Earnest Will in the 1980s. But it’s not 1987 anymore. Today’s threat isn't just a few speedboats with RPGs. It's swarms of suicide drones and sophisticated sea mines that are notoriously hard to spot until something goes boom.
Experts like Bryan Clark from the Hudson Institute are warning that an escort mission without a massive, sustained air campaign to wipe out every single mobile launcher on the Iranian coast is a suicide mission. You can't just park a destroyer next to a tanker and hope for the best. You have to own the entire coastline.
What this means for your wallet
If you’ve noticed the price at the pump jumping 20% in the last week, this is why. The market is pricing in a total shutdown. Even though India and China are still trying to sneak some Russian or Iranian oil through, the insurance costs alone are making shipping companies sweat.
The US has granted some "political risk insurance" to help, but that’s a band-aid on a gunshot wound. If Trump’s "team effort" doesn't materialize, we’re looking at a global energy shock that could make the 1970s look like the good old days.
If you’re watching the markets, keep your eyes on the UK and France this week. If they actually deploy carriers, it might signal a coordinated push to break the blockade. If they stay home, expect oil to keep climbing. Your best move is to watch the shipping insurance rates—when the insurers stop covering the Strait entirely, that’s when the real panic begins. Don't wait for the "Sold Out" signs at the gas station to start planning for a very expensive spring.
