Donald Trump just dropped a foreign policy bomb at the NATO summit in Ankara. Sitting right next to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Trump announced that he intends to lift the CAATSA sanctions on Turkey and look into selling them the F-35 stealth fighter jet.
If this feels like deja vu, that is because it is. Trump’s own administration booted Turkey from the F-35 program back in 2019. The reason? Erdogan bought an S-400 air defense system from Russia. Washington went into a panic, arguing that parking a Russian radar system next to America's most advanced stealth fighter would give Moscow a backdoor to harvest sensitive intelligence on the jet.
Now, Trump wants to wipe the slate clean. "We don’t want to sanction friends," Trump told reporters, adding that Turkey has been "much more loyal than other countries."
This is a massive shift that upends years of established American defense strategy. It sidelines the Pentagon's long-standing security warnings and sets up an immediate showdown with Capitol Hill.
The Trillion Dollar Jet and the Russian Radar Problem
To understand why this is such a messy situation, you have to look at how the F-35 lightning II program works. Turkey was not just a customer planning to buy 100 jets. They were a co-development partner. Turkish defense companies manufactured hundreds of critical components for the fuselage and engine. When the US kicked Ankara out, it cost the Pentagon an estimated $500 million to $600 million to pull that production back to America, while Turkey lost billions in projected long-term manufacturing revenue.
Right now, six completed F-35 jets that belong to Turkey are literally sitting in climate-controlled storage facilities in the United States. Turkey already paid roughly $1.7 billion into the program, money that the US government still holds.
The military logistics are only half the battle. The core issue remains the Russian hardware sitting on Turkish soil. The S-400 is designed to track and shoot down stealth targets. The Pentagon's technical experts have spent years maintaining that if Turkey operates both systems simultaneously, the S-400’s radar could map the F-35's stealth profile and beam that data back to Moscow.
Trump's cabinet—including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth—is reportedly working on a mechanism to unravel the sanctions. But they face a brick wall built by Congress.
The Bipartisan Fireball Waiting in Washington
Trump can say he wants the sanctions gone, but the law says otherwise. The ban on transferring F-35s to Turkey is codified in the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Section 1245 of that law states explicitly that Turkey cannot receive the jets unless the president certifies that Ankara no longer possesses the S-400 or any associated equipment and personnel.
Congress has spent the last several years completely united on this issue. Bipartisan opposition is already bubbling back up. Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn quickly expressed deep skepticism online, stating simply, "I hope this is wrong."
While some lawmakers, like Senator Mike Rounds, suggest a deal could be good news for NATO if the technical issues are resolved, the legal reality is rigid. Trump would need to convince Congress that the security threats are neutralized, or attempt to use aggressive executive actions to bypass the text of the NDAA. Given the institutional protectiveness over CAATSA legislation, a massive legal and political fight is virtually guaranteed.
Shifting Alliances in the Middle East
The ramifications of a potential F-35 sale reach far beyond Washington and Ankara. It has already triggered alarm bells in Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long relied on a guaranteed qualitative military edge in the region, which is anchored heavily by Israel's own fleet of F-35s. Netanyahu went on the record to criticize the move, claiming that supplying Turkey with these aircraft would destroy the power balance in the Middle East. Relations between Trump and Netanyahu have grown increasingly strained over military operations in Lebanon, and this defense pivot adds heavy fuel to that fire.
Erdogan is playing his hand masterfully. Beyond the F-35, he confirmed that Turkey wants American support and jet engines for its own domestic fighter program, the KAAN. Erdogan explicitly noted that he expects Trump to deliver because "the US president always stands by his word."
What Happens Next
If you are tracking this story to see if Turkey actually gets its wings back, look for these specific developments over the next few months:
- Keep an eye on the Department of Treasury and State Department for any emergency waivers or modifications to the CAATSA sanctions registry.
- Watch for any movement regarding the six Turkish F-35s currently stored in the US. If the Pentagon starts preparing those specific airframes for transport or testing, a deal is moving behind the scenes.
- Monitor the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Any attempt by Trump to rollback the NDAA restrictions will face its first major legislative hurdle here.
- Look for updates on whether Turkey agrees to place its Russian S-400 systems into verifiable storage or export them to a third party, which is the only realistic compromise that could appease congressional critics.
