The global energy market rests on a knife's edge in the Persian Gulf, and Scott Bessent's recent assertions regarding Chinese intervention in the Strait of Hormuz highlight a fundamental shift in how the West views Beijing’s role as a "responsible stakeholder." The core premise is straightforward: China, as the world’s largest importer of crude oil, cannot afford a blockade. If the Strait closes, the Chinese economy chokes. Therefore, the logic goes, Beijing will use every ounce of its diplomatic and military weight to keep the oil flowing.
But this assumes that China’s interests perfectly align with global stability. They don't. Recently making news recently: Somalia faces its most dangerous hunger crisis since 2022.
While Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent suggests China will act as a stabilizing force to protect its own supply lines, this view overlooks the tactical advantages Beijing gains from controlled chaos. For decades, the United States has shouldered the astronomical cost of securing the Middle East's sea lanes—a "security tax" that has effectively subsidized China's industrial rise. Beijing has enjoyed the benefits of a Pax Americana in the Gulf without having to fire a shot or fund a carrier strike group.
The Dependency Myth
China imports roughly 40% of its oil from the Persian Gulf. On paper, this looks like a vulnerability. In reality, it is a point of leverage. Beijing has spent the last decade building a "New Silk Road" of energy that bypasses traditional chokepoints. From the Power of Siberia pipelines to increased overland imports from Central Asia, China is actively diversifying away from the very waters Bessent claims they will fight to protect. Further information regarding the matter are detailed by The Washington Post.
If the Strait of Hormuz were to be blocked—likely by Iranian action in response to Western pressure—Beijing would not necessarily rush to play the hero. Instead, they would likely negotiate from a position of unique strength. China is Iran's primary customer. They are also Saudi Arabia’s biggest buyer. They are the only major power that talks to everyone in the region without the baggage of democratic proselytization.
Beijing doesn't want the Strait closed forever, but they might tolerate a temporary spike in global prices if it humbles Washington and forces the U.S. to choose between an expensive new war or a humiliating retreat from the region.
Diplomacy as a Weapon
Bessent’s confidence in Chinese intervention ignores the "freeloader" strategy that has served the CCP so well. When the Houthis began attacking shipping in the Red Sea, the world expected China to intervene. After all, Chinese goods fill those containers. Instead, Beijing did nothing. They sat back and watched as the U.S. Navy spent millions on interceptor missiles to defend ships that were often destined for Chinese ports.
This is the blueprint for Hormuz.
China will likely use its influence to secure "safe passage" for its own flagged vessels while leaving the rest of the world to navigate the insurance hikes and the drone swarms. We have already seen reports of Russian and Chinese ships receiving de facto immunity from certain regional actors. Why would Beijing spend blood and treasure to reopen a strait for everyone when they can simply cut a backroom deal to keep their own tankers moving?
The Cost of Escort Operations
Securing a waterway like Hormuz isn't just about presence; it's about the rules of engagement. The U.S. Fifth Fleet operates under strict protocols. China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) operates under no such constraints.
If China does "do what it can" to reopen the Strait, it will be on Chinese terms. This could include:
- Establishing permanent naval bases in the Gulf under the guise of "maritime security."
- Demanding that regional oil be priced in Yuan rather than Dollars as a condition for protection.
- Forcing Gulf monarchies to choose between Western security guarantees and Chinese market access.
The Strategic Pipeline Pivot
To understand why China isn't as panicked as Bessent suggests, one must look at the map. The Gwadar port in Pakistan and the pipelines stretching into western China are designed specifically for the "Malacca Dilemma" and the "Hormuz Trap." While these projects aren't yet capable of replacing the sheer volume of sea-borne trade, they provide a survival buffer.
The U.S. has long operated under the assumption that China’s energy hunger makes them predictable. We assume they will act like us—intervening to maintain the status quo. This is a dangerous miscalculation. Beijing views the status quo as a Western construct designed to keep China contained. A crisis in the Strait of Hormuz isn't just a threat to their GDP; it is an opportunity to rewrite the maritime law of the 21st century.
Realities of Naval Power
The PLAN is now the largest navy in the world by ship count, but it lacks the blue-water experience of the U.S. Navy. However, in the narrow, shallow waters of the Persian Gulf, bulk counts for less than proximity. China has been practicing "anti-access/area denial" (A2/AD) tactics in the South China Sea for years. These same tactics—using land-based missiles and swarms of small craft—are exactly what would be needed to "open" or "close" Hormuz.
Bessent is right that China has a vested interest in the oil. He is wrong to assume that interest results in a pro-Western outcome.
If the Strait closes, the first phone call the Iranians receive won't be from Washington. it will be from Beijing. And the price for reopening those waters won't just be measured in barrels of oil, but in the total eclipse of American influence in the Middle East. China will not save the world from an energy crisis; they will manage the crisis to ensure they are the only ones who emerge from it with their economy intact.
The belief that China will act as a global stabilizer is a relic of 1990s neoliberal optimism. In the current era of Great Power competition, a closed Strait is a chess piece, and Beijing is playing for the whole board.
Relying on a rival to secure the world's most vital energy artery isn't a strategy. It's an abdication.
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